Makoto Ochi vs Toshiki Karigyo Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In recent form, Toshiki Karigyo has a superior second serve winning rate (46.74%) compared to Makoto Ochi (41.13%). How might this impact the match dynamic? An advantage in maintaining service games.
• When it comes to returning second serves, Karigyo leads with 45.05% of points won, outperforming Ochi, who stands at 37.95%. Does this trend indicate possible break opportunities for Karigyo?
• Both players have similar success rates returning first serves: Ochi at 29.72% and Karigyo slightly ahead at 32.21%. A subtle yet potentially important edge for Karigyo.
• Under pressure, Karigyo has a higher breakpoint save rate of 55.56%, compared to Ochi’s 47.83%. Who handles high-stakes points better? Karigyo seems more resilient under pressure.
• Over the last year, both players have similar win rates: Ochi at 54.05% and Karigyo at 53.85%. This suggests a balanced match, but what's more important may be their recent performance trends.
• Both players excel on clay with identical career win rates of 63%, but differ on hard courts, favoring Karigyo with a higher win rate on hard surfaces (52% vs. Ochi's 37%). Surface preference could be key if the match is on hard court.
• In terms of competition level, Ochi and Karigyo compete mostly in Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments, with similar winning percentages. This parity indicates similar experience levels.
• Opposition quality leans towards Karigyo who faced players with a higher average rank (227.27) compared to Ochi (346.86), suggesting Karigyo has contended with tougher opponents.
• For deciding sets in recent matches, Karigyo maintains a perfect 100% win rate, compared to Ochi’s 50%. Could this imply an edge in prolonged matches for Karigyo?
• Karigyo slightly leads in converting breakpoints, with 31.82% compared to Ochi's 29.85%, highlighting another small advantage in games where breaking serve is crucial.

Editorial Prediction (November 25, 2025, UTC):

In assessing the upcoming match, Toshiki Karigyo demonstrates an upper hand in several critical areas. His superior performance on second serves and return games offers him an ability to dominate rallies and exploit weaknesses in Makoto Ochi's game.

Additionally, Karigyo's resilience under pressure, exemplified by his higher breakpoint save rate and immaculate deciding set record, suggests he may handle critical junctures of the match more effectively.

Ochi's struggle against higher-ranked opponents compared to Karigyo, coupled with slightly lower overall conversion rates, may further tilt the scales in favor of Karigyo. Despite Ochi's potential to challenge, Karigyo's recent form and adaptability on different surfaces make him the likely winner of this matchup.